Gold is trading around the $4,090 level. On the H1 time frame, the overall market structure remains sideways to bearish, as the price has been unable to hold firmly above key resistance levels. This suggests that sellers continue to maintain the advantage in the short term.
Although buying pressure has emerged intermittently, it has not yet been strong enough to change the prevailing market structure. Traders should therefore remain cautious of renewed selling pressure whenever the price moves higher.
➡️ The overall bias remains: Sell on Rally
🌍 Global and Economic Update
🇺🇸 Donald Trump continues to take a firm stance toward Iran by introducing additional sanctions and increasing diplomatic pressure. As a result, tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor closely monitored by the market, even though no new military confrontation has occurred.
🛢️ Oil prices remain elevated due to supply concerns. This may add further inflationary pressure and contribute to increased volatility across global financial markets.
🏦 Regarding the Federal Reserve, the market continues to expect the Fed to keep interest rates at elevated levels, as inflation has not yet returned sustainably to its target. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar may remain strong, creating short-term pressure on gold prices.
🔴 Resistance Levels (H1)
4,130
4,180
4,250
🟢 Support Levels (H1)
4,040
3,980
3,900
🎯 Outlook for This Week
📌 If the price fails to break above 4,130, further selling pressure may emerge. 📉
📌 If the price falls below 4,040, it may continue lower to test 3,980 and 3,900.
📌 If the price can hold above 4,180, a rebound toward 4,250 may become possible.
⚠️ Key factors to monitor this week include tensions between the United States and Iran, the overall outlook for the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. These factors will directly affect the U.S. dollar and gold prices.
➡️ The primary strategy remains Sell on Rally until a clear reversal signal appears.
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